A
las, from a league table perspective, Barclays Fantasy Premier League (FPL) 2013/14 was a disappointing season for me. I say from a league table perspective as points-wise it was my highest total to date. It would seem that the general standard of FPL play is improving, although the particularly high points hauls of 2013/14 probably owed more to the performance of Luis Suarez – glad to see the back of him!
My stubborn, contrarian streak negatively impacted
my performance last season (in some seasons it has aided me). Sticking with Van
Persie when he was fit, thereby missing out on some hefty Suarez points hauls, and
ignoring the Ramsey bandwagon, hurt me. For instance, in one gameweek alone I
missed out on approximately 50 points after Suarez’s heroics against Norwich.
As the last two seasons have been relatively lean,
I have revised my FPL ‘Top Tips’ for 2014/15. I now accept that incurring
points deductions in FPL is not the biggest sin and possibly has some merit,
particularly early on in the season and in joining the big club player bandwagons
as demonstrated by Suarez, Y.Toure and Ramsey last season. Still, my contrarian
outlook remains and I like to think my misjudgements of last season have
sharpened up my analysis. I hope you find my recommendations below helpful.
1. “O Captain! My Captain!”
In FPL it is not the most balanced, well-rounded
team that wins. The teams who triumph are typically those who concentrate their
resources by identifying the big hitters early and getting their captain
selection right. The winner of my league last season played a 3-4-3 with a
front three of Suarez, Aguero (when fit) and Rooney supplemented by Y.Toure and
Ramsey in midfield. His other two midfielders were no more than assured
starters (of the Jedinak and Delph mould), but this did not matter, as the
points hauls of these five big hitters were vast.
Adopting this approach will be even more important in
the Ultimate Fantasy Premier League, allowing players to rotate their captain
during the gameweek. For instance, for the Saturday fixtures you could have
Aguero as captain, Costa on the Sunday and Van Persie on the Monday.
Quite simply, if you make the right captain
selection then you are in with a chance. Indeed, had I picked Suarez five games
earlier in 2013/14 I would have been very close to winning my league. It looks
like Van Persie will be the most popular captain FPL choice in the first few gameweeks.
My inclination is not to include Van Persie in my FPL line-up even though he is
Van Gaal’s darling. I still have doubts about Man Utd generally and do not
think that Van Gaal is a managerial demi-god. Additionally, at £12.5m he is
expensive. Had Van Persie been £1m cheaper I would probably pick him. At £10.5m
Rooney, who ought to start alongside Van Persie in a 3-4-1-2 formation, is
better value.
2. Do not waste points on transfers except at
the start of the season
Incurring
four point deductions on a regular basis believing that you will hit the
jackpot and score a hundred plus points in a gameweek isn’t very wise. The only certainty is that you will lose four
points, which really adds up during the course of the season if done frequently.
Nevertheless, there are occasions when taking a points hit has merits, such as
double gameweeks. Equally, it is worth incurring points deductions in the
opening part of the season (let’s say up to the 5th game) to ensure
that you have all of the big hitters in place as you will struggle to
incorporate such players on a gradual basis as the rapid price escalation will put
such players out of your reach. It is even worth incurring a one-off 20-30
points deduction if you have to reconfigure your team completely in the early
stages.
3. Be patient (slightly contradicting aspects of tip
number two)
Inevitably some of your players will go through
barren spells, even the biggest point hitters. I find it hilarious to read the
over-analysis and key performance indicators of websites like Fantasy Football Scout. Nobody can predict when a player will
gain or lose form or the duration of a player's purple or barren patch. You
will only gain maximum reward from your players by sticking with them through
long periods. Try to think how many points they are likely to gain over the
course of the season rather than on a weekly basis. For instance, if you pick
Van Persie and he fails to score in five games, but is still playing well, you
would be foolish to replace him with a player who scored a hat-trick in the
previous week. Indeed, fixture difficulty being equal, Van Persie is just as
likely to score as the replacement. It is an example of human irrationality
that bookies exploit and, to use every stockbroker’s disclaimer, ‘past
performance is no guarantee of future returns’.
4. Pick players who are assured starters
This commandment sounds trite, but is pretty vital
in Fantasy Football and not always easy to achieve given the prevalence of
squad rotation in football today, particularly among the top teams.
Even the reserves you select (except for your
reserve goalkeeper if you are not rotating) should be regular starters so that
you can have confidence that at least 11 of your 15 will start. Equally, it
gives you greater flexibility in rotating your side so that you can play
players when they are likely to score highly because of easy fixtures that
gameweek. During parts of the campaign you will have to rely on your reserves
for points because of late injuries or unexpected rotations. James Chester
(when fit) and Scott Dann, both at £4m, were particularly valuable for me in
this regard last season.
Here are the starting line-ups that I think would
be selected at present if each manager had a fully fit squad. I've highlighted
the players in bold that I think merit selection consideration based on overall
value:
Arsenal (4-2-3-1/4-1-2-1-2): Szczesny; Debuchy, Mertesacker,
Koscielny, Gibbs; Arteta (Arsenal will probably sign a new defensive
midfielder who will start ahead of Arteta), Wilshere; Sanchez, Ozil,
Ramsey; Giroud
Aston Villa (3-4-3): Guzan; Baker, Vlaar, Clark;
Bacuna, Westwood, Delph, Luna/Richardson; Weimann,
Benteke (injured for the opening
months), Agbonlahor
Burnley: (4-4-2): Heaton; Trippier, Shackell,
Duff (Burnley will sign a new centre back to start ahead of Duff), Mee/Taylor; Kightly, Marney, Jones/Taylor, Arfield; Jutkiewicz/Vokes (injured for the
opening months), Ings
Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Courtois;
Ivanovic/Azpilicueta, Cahill/Ivanovic, Terry/Cahill, Luis; Ramires/Fabregas, Matic; Schurrle/Willian, Fabregas (worth considering
if played ‘in the hole’)/Oscar, Hazard; Costa
Crystal Palace (4-4-2): Speroni; Mariappa, Delaney, Dann, Ward;
Puncheon, Jedinak, Ledley, Bolasie; Chamakh,
Gayle/Murray
Everton (4-2-3-1): Howard; Coleman, Stones (if he starts ahead of
Distin)/Distin, Jagielka, Baines; McCarthy, Barry; Mirallas/McGeady, Barkley; Naismith; Kone (Kone would be a bargain if he
starts)/Mirallas (it is likely that
Everton will purchase a striker before the transfer deadline)
Hull City (4-2-3-1): McGregor; Elmohamady, Chester, Davies, Figueroa;
Livermore, Huddlestone; Snodgrass/Long, Ince,
Brady/Snodgrass; Jelavic/Long
Leicester City (4-4-2): Schmeichel; De Laet, Morgan,
Moore/Upson, Konchesky/Schlupp; Knockaert/Albrighton, Albrighton/Drinkwater,
Drinkwater/James, Mahrez; Ulloa,
Nugent
Liverpool (4-2-3-1): Mignolet; Johnson, Lovren,
Skrtel/Sakho, Flanagan (if Liverpool
don’t sign a new left back – they probably will); Gerrard, Henderson; Markovic,
Sterling, Lallana (injured for the first month); Sturridge
Man City (4-2-3-1): Hart/Caballero; Zabaleta/Sagna, Kompany, Mangala, Kolarov/Clichy; Fernandinho, Y.Toure/Fernando; Nasri,
Y.Toure/Aguero, Silva; Aguero/Dzeko
Man Utd (3-4-1-2): De Gea;
Jones/Smalling, Evans, Jones/Smalling; Valencia/Rafael, Fletcher/Cleverley,
Herrera, Shaw; Mata/Kagawa; Van Persie, Rooney (the Man Utd team is very much open to conjecture)
Newcastle (4-2-3-1): Krul; Janmaat, Williamson/S.Taylor, Coloccini, Santon; Tiote, Sissoko/Anita/Colback; Cabella/Sissoko, De
Jong, Gouffran/Cabella; Riviere
QPR (4-5-1): Green;
Simpson, Ferdinand/Dunne, Caulker, Traore/Hill; Hoilett, Barton, Faurlin, O’Neil, Phillips;
Austin
Southampton (4-3-3): Boruc; Clyne, Hooiveld,
Fonte, Targett; Schneiderlin/S.Davis,
Wanyama, Ward-Prowse/S.Davis; Tadic, Pelle, Rodriguez (will be injured for the
opening months)
Stoke (4-2-3-1): Begovic; Bardsley/Cameron, Huth/Wilson, Shawcross, Pieters; N'Zonzi, Sidwell; Odemwingie/Arnautovic, Arnautovic/Ireland, Assaidi/Arnautovic;
Diouf/Crouch
Sunderland (4-2-3-1): Mannone/Pantillimon; Jones,
Brown, O'Shea, Van Aanholt; Bridcutt/Cattermole, Larsson/Cattermole; Johnson, Gomez, Borini (I would expect this deal to be concluded); Wickham/Fletcher
Swansea (4-2-3-1): Vorm/Fabianski; Rangel, Chico, Williams, Taylor; Britton, Shelvey/Ki
(the latter might leave and is linked with Aston Villa); Routledge/Dyer, Sigurdsson, Montero; Bony (might leave)/Gomis
Tottenham (4-3-3): Lloris; Walker, Chiriches/Dawson,
Vertonghen, Davies; Paulinho/Capoue,
Sandro/Bentaleb, Dembele; Lennon/Townsend/Lamela,
Adebayor/Soldado/Kane (will probably sign a new centre forward), Eriksen
West Brom (4-2-3-1): Foster; Wisdom/Baird Olsson/McAuley, Lescott, Pocognoli; Mulumbu, Yacob/Baird/Gardner/Brunt;
Morrison/Dorrans, Sessegnon; Berahino; Ideye
West Ham (4-3-3/4-5-1): Adrian; Demel, Reid,
Collins/Tomkins, Cresswell; Jarvis, Diame/Kouyate, Noble, Nolan/Morrison,
Jarvis, Valencia,
Downing/Vaz Te
5. Formations – the end of 3-4-3?
3-4-3 has been the default formation over the last
few years in FPL, efficient on two fronts. Firstly, forwards, as a group, have
tended to clock up more points than defenders and midfielders, although this
has not always been the case. For instance, the top ten forwards of last season
(including Suarez) scored more points than the top ten defenders and top ten
midfielders. Using this logic, it would seem prudent to concentrate your
resources on your forwards. Equally, forwards are the most expensive group so
playing a 4-5-1 or a 3-5-2 is an inefficient allocation of your resources. For
instance, if you are set on picking a 3-5-2, your benched forward, assuming you
have picked a cheap forward who is an assured starter, will cost £6m or £5.5m. Conversely,
a cheap defender on your bench will set you back £4.5m or £4m and a cheap midfielder
£5m or £4.5m.
Nevertheless, given the surfeit of top notch goal
scoring midfielders in the 2014/15 FPL a change of approach might be in order
bringing us back to the era of five man midfields when Fabregas and Lampard dominated
the FPL points charts. I have not yet decided which formation to adopt but
currently I’m inclined to stick with a 3-4-3.
6. Player picks
Goalkeepers
Previously I have shunned the
goalkeeper rotation option (ensuring that your starting goalkeeper is playing a
home fixture) as I could not see any clear favourable cheap rotation options in
the initial months of past seasons. Of course, once Pulis arrived at Palace
last season, the Speroni and Mannone combination became very fruitful and
brought to the fore the merits of adopting this tactic.
In this year’s FPL there is the
‘slap you in the face’ rotation option of Krul and Mannone with a combined fee
of £9m. Both goalkeepers notch up plenty of points for saves and their defences
should not be overly porous. Newcastle should be a different proposition this
season due to their excellent summer signings. However, there are some
potential drawbacks. Krul is injury-prone and Mannone is not a guaranteed
starter with Pantillimon also vying for the Sunderland goalkeeper position,
although the latter drawback is not much of a problem as, presumably, Poyet
will not rotate his goalkeepers throughout the season. As this is the best
rotation goalkeeper option there isn’t much merit in me outlining the other options.
If you decide against the
goalkeeper rotation option I would recommend picking Courtois at £6m as he will
be the cheapest route into Chelsea’s defence, which should be pretty stellar. The
second best option looks like Sczezsny at £5.5m followed by Lloris and De Gea at
£5.5m each. Speroni and Begovic at £5m each are also pretty good value. Ignore
Hart as Willy Caballero is a bit of a favourite of Pellegrini’s and might well
start several games.
Should you pick a goalkeeper whom
you intend to start each game regardless of the fixture, then your second
goalkeeper should only cost £4m. It does not matter if your number two does not
start as you can always transfer in a new number one goalkeeper. The best £4m
goalkeepers, who are most likely to start, are Elliot at Newcastle and Myhill
at West Brom given Krul’s and Foster’s susceptibility to injuries.
I shall start with the Krul and
Mannone/Pantillimon rotation option this season.
Defenders
My general approach towards
defenders is to be as frugal as possible, concentrating my resources on
midfielders and forwards. Typically, I pick three mid-price defenders from
clubs that I think will be strong defensively and two budget defenders who are
regular starters.
The only appealing Man City
defender is Kompany at £6m as he is the only assured starter at present. If
Mangala signs he should become Kompany’s regular centre back partner, but he is
unlikely to be any more tempting than Kompany, probably receiving a £6m
valuation or higher.
Chelsea’s defence is generally too
expensive. Equally, there is considerable doubt about who will start out of
Azpilicueta, Ivanovic, Cahill and Terry for the right back and centre back
slots. There is also likely to be considerable rotation. The only assured starter
in the back four looks to be Felipe Luis at left back. He is very well priced
at £6m and will be in my starting XI.
Arsenal should be strong again
defensively. Debuchy, Mertesacker, and Koscielny are seemingly assured starters,
although Calum Chambers, given his talent, could challenge Debuchy later on in
the season. My slight concern with Debuchy is his poor discipline – eight
bookings and two dismissals last season, but this record ought to improve at
Arsenal as he will be under less pressure defensively.
Gibbs should start ahead of Monreal
and ought to pick up more assists and score some goals given that he
effectively functions in many games as a left winger. He came close to scoring
on several occasions last season. Of course Gibbs’s injury record must be
considered, but this does seem to be improving. Mertesacker and Koscielny are
still quite good value at £6m, particularly as they are bonus point darlings. However,
at £5.5m Debuchy and Gibbs look the best value Arsenal defenders, one of whom will
be in my FPL starting XI.
Liverpool’s defence seems a little
shaky, Lovren aside, and will not attract my investment. I would be very
surprised if Skrtel repeated his goal tally of 2013/14 and his starting place
is in doubt after Lovren’s signing. Lovren is the best value at £5.5m, but I
think there are better options elsewhere. At £5m Flanagan is good value if
Liverpool do not sign another left back before the transfer window shuts.
Man Utd’s defenders are cheap, but
the uncertainty of the starting line-up makes any investment pretty risky. Although
Van Gaal will bring in further defensive reinforcements, I think Man Utd will
be a little weak defensively. Luke Shaw at £6m is, currently, the best option as
he is an assured starter and ought to score and pick up assists.
Under Pochettino, Spurs’s defence
should improve. The best value player is Ben Davies at £5m who ought to be in
most FPL line-ups. Vertonghen should do well, but at £6m is a little costly.
There is the misconception that
teams who play attractive football have bad defences. Actually, sides who play passing
football often have good defences and this is true of Everton under Roberto
Martinez. Everton had one of the best defences last season keeping 15 clean
sheets aided by one of the Premier League’s strongest double-pivots in McCarthy
and Barry. The best value Everton defenders are Jagielka at £5.5m and Stones at
£5.5m, assuming the latter ousts Distin from the starting XI. It should be
noted that Jagielka and Stones have two of the highest bonus point scoring
ratios (ignoring goals scored, assists, clean sheets etc.). Coleman and Baines
are just too expensive at £7m. I am considering picking Jagielka in my starting
XI.
The cheaper defenders who have
caught my attention in the £4.5m bracket are N.Taylor; Vlaar; Shackell:
Mariappa; and Morgan. Vlaar is likely to attract plenty of investment at £4.5m
because of his World Cup exploits, but my favourite £4.5m defender is Mariappa
due to Pulis’s miserly defensive record.
Of the £4m cohort Andre Wisdom and
Matt Targett look the most enticing. Wisdom ought to secure the right back slot
at West Brom and Targett might very become Southampton’s starting left back. Targett
is rated very highly at Southampton. Additionally, whoever starts alongside
Morgan at centre back at Leicester out of Moore and Upson will be good value at
£4m.
Midfielders
There are a plethora of exciting
midfield options this season.
At Man City we have to start with Yaya
Toure – the FPL midfield point scoring machine of 2013/14. At £11m is he worth
it? My answer: quite possibly. If Toure is used in a similar advanced midfield
role, which he might very well be if Fernando and Fernandinho start as the
double pivot, and is given penalty and free kick duties, then my answer would
move from quite possibly to yes. Currently, I am leaning towards including him
in my starting XI, in part because of Aguero’s injury record. Given Man City’s
attacking capabilities you will need to include a Man City midfielder or
forward. Samir Nasri at £8.5m is also very good value. Nasri had a very strong
final 10 games last season ousting Navas as Man City’s right sided midfielder. He
also outperformed Silva.
Chelsea’s midfield is likely to be
rotated considerably over the course of the season. Hazard is probably the most
attractive midfielder at £10m even though Mourinho would prefer him, on
occasions, to play as an auxiliary left back! Hazard should be one of the top
players in the goal and assist charts. His appeal will diminish if Costa is
handed penalty duties. I’m staying clear of Fabregas as there are just too many
uncertainties about how Mourinho will deploy him. Will he play in the
double-pivot with Matic or ‘in the hole’ rotating with Oscar? I’m not even sure
if he is a guaranteed starter as I wouldn’t call him a Mourinho type player,
being fairly weak in the ‘transition’, unlike Oscar. The best value Chelsea
midfielder will be Schurrle if he receives a regular starting post due to his
goal scoring, similar in style to Theo Walcott. My hunch is that Schurrle will
receive more game time and might be worth a punt.
It is hard to pick a stand out
Liverpool midfielder. Gerrard seems expensive at £9m as he will probably suffer
from greater rotation and Liverpool, in all likelihood, will not pick up as
many penalties as last season without Suarez. If Coutinho is played in a deeper
role, as he was at the end of last season, he should be avoided. Markovic should
also be side-stepped as, although reasonably cheap at £7.5m, he will take some
time to adjust to the Premier League, particularly as he is only 20. I’d be surprised
if he starts more than 25 games this season. Sterling looks the best value at
£8.5m especially if he is played ‘in the hole’. Lallana will miss the first
month of the new season and my hunch is that he will not be as successful from
a FPL points-scoring perspective as he was last season.
Arsenal have a glut of FPL midfield
darlings. Sanchez, Ramsey and Ozil are all enticing options. I think Arsenal
will begin the season with a flexible 4-1-2-1-2 formation with Sanchez and
Giroud leading the line, which makes Sanchez more attractive than he would be
if he was played out wide. It is not difficult to envisage Sanchez scoring 15
goals plus this season. Equally, Ramsey, although playing in a deeper role,
which is normally a negative from a FPL perspective, looks to have taken up the
Lampard and Fabregas deep lying midfield goal scoring mantle. Ozil, unfairly
maligned, should also benefit from the signing of Sanchez and ought to rack up
more assists and goals than last season. It should be noted that Ozil will
probably miss the first few games of the season due to his World Cup exertions.
There is uncertainty about Man Utd’s
midfield line-up, but it seems likely that Mata will start ‘in the hole’ in a
3-4-1-2. If this does happen then he is excellent value at £9m and will be in
my starting XI. Mata is the only Man Utd midfielder who is worth considering as
Januzaj and Kagawa will probably be irregular starters. New signing Herrera
will be a deeper lying midfielder so I won’t be considering him.
Looking at Spurs, Eriksen is good
value at £8m. Lamela might improve under Pochettino, but there are others that
I prefer.
At Everton Mirallas at £7.5m and
Barkley at £7m are good value, although both suffered from Martinez’s rotations
last season. They are not absolutely assured starters so I will not include
them initially.
Other enticing midfield options
include:
- Newcastle’s Siem De Jong at £7m. He is an assured starter ‘in the hole’ and will take Newcastle’s set pieces. Many FPL players will pick him;
- Stoke’s Marko Arnautovic at £6.5m. Arnautovic is a set piece maestro and will be particularly appealing if played ‘in the hole’;
- Adam Johnson at £6.5m. Johnson seems to have slipped off the radar of many FPL commentators. It should be remembered that he scores lots of goals and is Sunderland’s penalty taker;
- Swansea’s new signing Gylfi Sigurdsson at £6m. Sigurdsson will start ‘in the hole’ and should have his fair share of Swansea’s set pieces. He was a prolific FPL point scorer in his last spell at Swansea and should be in everyone’s starting XI;
- Shelvey is good value at £5.5m, although Sigurdsson, as a Swansea midfielder, is preferable;
- Jordi Gomez, if played ‘in the hole’, at Sunderland is good value £5.5m, but I am far from certain about the regularity of his starts; and
- Ince at Hull at £5.5m, particularly if played ‘in the hole’ in a 4-2-3-1.
Of the budget midfielders (£5m and
below) the following players are most appealing: Kightly £5m; Barton £5m;
Albrighton £4.5m; and Cork at £4.5m if he starts, which is doubtful.
Forwards
Starting with Man City, Sergio
Aguero is quite expensive at £12m given his injury record. However, if he does
return to full fitness then he is probably the best FPL forward. I shall
monitor him very closely in pre-season before coming to a decision. Dzeko is
appealing if Aguero is injured. Forget Negredo and Jovetic.
Diego Costa is an appealing
prospect: well-priced at £10.5m and an assured starter. His allure would
heighten if he becomes Chelsea’s penalty taker. He was overplayed at Atletico Madrid
last season contributing to his injuries in the latter stages. Costa must be on
everyone’s short-list. Lukaku is worth considering if he is loaned out to Everton.
At Arsenal, Giroud has value at
£8.5m, especially as Walcott will be injured for the first few months. Given
Arsenal’s midfield strength he will benefit from plenty of goal scoring
opportunities and rack up assists because of Arsenal’s runners from deep.
Sturridge at £11.5m is a little
expensive, but remains one of the top forwards in FPL. I do not think Suarez’s
departure will affect him unduly. Lambert’s game time will be too irregular, so
he should not be considered.
Rooney is better value than Van
Persie, assuming Van Gaal Starts with a 3-4-1-2 with Van Persie and Rooney up
front. I am leaning towards including Rooney in my initial starting XI. It
should also be noted than Man Utd’s first five games are pretty straightforward
making the selection of Van Persie or Rooney even more enticing.
The other forwards that appeal to
me are: Bony, Valencia, Ideye, Ings, Kone (if Everton do not sign another
forward); and Ulloa.
7. Set Piece Takers
This is hardly a great revelation, but picking
players who take set pieces is a good idea. The list below outlines the likely
set piece takers:
Arsenal: Arteta (pens if starts), Giroud (pens)
Ozil/Sanchez/Cazorla (corners and free kicks)
Aston Villa: Benteke (pens when fit), Bacuna,
Westwood (corners and free kicks);
Burnley: Ings (pens), Trippier (corners and free
kicks);
Chelsea: Costa/Hazard (pens), Hazard, Willian,
Oscar (corners and free kicks);
Crystal Palace: Jedinak (pens); Bolasie (corners
and free kicks);
Everton: Baines;
Hull City: Jelavic (pens), Huddlestone (corners and
free kicks);
Leicester: Nugent (pens, if plays), Knockaert
(corners and free kicks);
Liverpool: Gerrard;
Man City: Y.Toure (pens and free kicks), Nasri and
Silva (corners and free kicks);
Man Utd: Van Persie (pens), Van Persie, Rooney,
Mata (corners and free kicks);
Newcastle: De Jong (pens and free kicks), Santon
and Gouffran (corners)
QPR: Austin (pens), Barton (corners and free
kicks);
Southampton: Pelle (pens), Tadic (corners and free
kicks);
Stoke: Arnautovic (pens and free kicks), Arnautovic
and Assaidi (corners);
Sunderland: Johnson (pens), Johnson and Larsson
(corners and set pieces);
Swansea: Bony (pens), Sigurdsson/Shelvey (corners
and free kicks);
Tottenham: Adebayor (pens – unlikely to be fit for
the start of the season), Eriksen (corners and free kicks);
West Brom: Morrison (pens), Morrison, Dorrans,
Brunt (corners and free kicks); and
West Ham: Noble (pens and free kicks), Downing,
Jarvis (corners and free kicks).
8. Avoid master plans
There are some Fantasy Football obsessives who will
have already mapped out points in the season when they will transfer particular
players. Unfortunately, for them, in all likelihood, this will not work out as
there will be a number of unforeseen events (as Donald Rumsfeld termed them –
'unknown unknowns' and 'known unknowns', which is undoubtedly the wisest thing
that he ever said) like injuries, suspensions, loss of form, which will de-rail
the very best laid plans. Last season my first 10 game weeks were spent
constantly tinkering with my team to combat injuries.
Nevertheless, some forward planning is advisable. For
instance, when transferring a player in or out it is worth looking at that
player’s next five gameweeks to assess the difficulty of the fixtures. You
would be ill-advised to transfer out a player with five favourable forthcoming
fixtures with a player with five tricky fixtures.
9. Leave yourself some wriggle room
It is highly unlikely that you will pick the
perfect team in the first gameweek that will see you through until the season’s
end. It is therefore sensible to leave at least £0.5m in the kitty to give you
the opportunity to purchase a player who will shoot up in value because
everyone is suddenly clamouring for him. If you have nothing left in the kitty
you could have to restructure your whole team to accommodate the new player,
either requiring a wildcard which you don't want to play too early, or
incurring a loss of unnecessary points in transfers.
10. The Bonus Point
System
Many FPL players attach far too much importance to
the FPL bonus point system. Of course, it is worth understanding, but it should
not distract you from the core point scoring elements of FPL: clean sheets,
assists and goals scored. Knowing the bonus point scoring ratios of each player
(the ratio is calculated by removing all of the obvious events that contribute
to bonus points like clean sheets, assists and goals) will do little to improve
your FPL performance. It is not Moneyball and knowing this does not make you Billy
Beane.
The principle beneficiaries of last season’s FPL
bonus point scoring system were centre backs and central midfielders in the
double pivot. This is largely because these are typically the players with the
best possession statistics – experts of the sideways pass. Fullbacks and
wingers were adversely affected because they lose possession more frequently by
taking players on and by adopting a more risky approach in their passing.
I have outlined below the top ten defenders and
midfielders with the highest bonus point scoring ratios of 2013/14 who played at
least 15 full games:
Defenders
1.
Sakho 5.7
2.
Skrtel 5.53
3.
Mertesacker 5.46
4.
Agger 5.4
5.
Jagielka 5.3
6.
Demichelis 5.22
7.
Koscielny 5.2
8.
Kolarov 5.15
9.
Williams 5.09
10.
Clichy 5
Midfielders
1. Lucas 5.53
2. Arteta 5.41
3. Carrick 5.38
4. Cork 5.28
5. Britton 5.14
6. Gerrard 5.13
7. Nasri 5.07
8. S.Davis 4.96
9= Ki-Sung Yeung 4.88
9= Y.Toure 4.88
You will note that the players with
the best bonus point ratios are generally players from the bigger clubs since
they have better possession statistics. Perhaps the most surprising ratio is
that of Samir Nasri’s given his willingness to take players on and his ambitious
passing.
The FPL organisers have changed the
bonus point scoring system for 2014/15 to aid fullbacks and wingers. The key
changes are introducing points for crosses in open play and for successful
dribbles. More bonus points than last season are also awarded for clearances,
blocks, interceptions and recoveries.
I have only mentioned defenders and
midfielders as the bonus point system in relation to goalkeepers and forwards
is simplistic. Goalkeepers pick up bonus points for saves and forwards
principally for goals scored and assists. However, forwards will suffer from
the following actions being punished more severely by the new bonus point
system: being tackled, being caught offside and shooting off target.
Remember: the bonus point system is
a miniscule part of FPL. Select players because of their propensity to pick up
clean sheets and assists and to score goals. Selecting players purely on the
basis of their bonus point ratio is rather silly.
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